Saturday, June 12, 2010

BRAZIL'S SUCCESSION PLAN...

Who are the alternatives to carry forward the rich legacy of Lula

Is Brazil in search of a new leader? Fortunately or unfortunately, Lula’s formal political career is coming to an end as he is barred by law from contesting any Presidential election further after the consecutive two. But despite criticism, he remained one of the most popular leaders in the political fraternity of Brazil during his tenure. He undoubtedly has significant contributions in taking the country to the path of economic success. He is also perceived to be a pragmatic leader when it comes to foreign relations. During his rule, the foreign trade surplus has increased drastically to $47 billion in 2006. He has also been successful in maintaining good relation with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez as well as George Bush. Moreover, Brazil played a crucial role in negotiating the conflict between Venezuela and Colombia under Lula's leadership. Most importantly, Brazil gained a prestigious status at the international level under his leadership. His term is coming to an end as Brazil is scheduled to hold elections on October 3, 2010. This raises an important question. Is there any hope for Brazil to produce popular leaders like Lula? There are certain key names in the 2010 presidential race. Though they all carry similar opinions and policies in context to the economic stability of the nation, they widely differ in policies especially with regards to foreign policy, and role of the state in context to its interventionism.

To talk about them briefly, first is Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s chief of staff and his chosen candidate to represent his Workers’ party. Though she is not very influential and popular but if she is backed by the gigantic election campaigns of Lula, she may emerge beyond anyone's imagination. However, her policies would not differ much from that of Lula. Foreign policy would be indifferent to that of Lula if she wins boosting ties with developing countries and pushing for reforms for multilateral bodies and seeking permanent membership in the UN Security Council where Lula failed. Second to name is Jose Serra of the social Democracy Party. As the Sao Paulo state governor, he has his biggest lessons with him. Lula lost thrice before he finally won the election in 2002. He just lost once to Lula in the 2002 Presidential election. With his past experience and with 20 per cent point lead over Rousseff in opinion polls, he has high popularity in Brazil. However, his victory may strengthen America's say over South American affairs and also over the Brazilian foreign policy. And apart from them, Marina Silva, the former environment minister is the other Presidential candidate. Well, she might be popular in the international arena for her contributions to protect Amazon rainforest, but she needs to reshape her image in the country as the opinion polls show a mere 7 per cent support. Ciro Gomes, former governor of the northeastern state of Ceara is the other one who also ties Rousseff for second place in polls at 14 per cent.

Though Brazil inherited free and fair electoral democracy, Lula’s leadership remains unique in the Brazilian history. Political rivalry is inevitable and understandable. Beyond everything, the most important task before his successors will be to carry forward the legacy they have inherited successfully! But the question is who can do that best?

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009


An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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