In near future, Russia and Turkey are all set to spar
The Turks and the Russians certainly have some thing in common. If not any thing then at least their ambition of becoming more powerful - especially in their region. If Russia is trying to revamp its influence over erstwhile Soviet region, then Turkey is leaving no stone unturned to capture the centre-stage of geopolitical arena.
Energy is no doubt the major issue in Turkish strategic
thinking. As Turkey continues to industrialise, its thirst for energy is all set to increase. With Turkey being the largest supplier of low-cost goods to the Russian market, the influence of Turkey’s soft power can be easily felt over the Russian land. Since most of Russian corporations (heavy industry) can’t afford expensive western imports, Turkey found its foot into Russian economy by providing them economically affordable alternatives. Moreover, Turkey has a significant intervention and trade-ties in former communist states like Romania, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia. For the uninitiated, most of the Balkan states are already members of the European Union. Furthering this trade related ties, Russia is Turkey’s chief trading partner, with energy accounting for a huge pie. Talking in numbers, presently Turkey depends on Russia for 65-70 per cent of its natural gas and 40 per cent of its oil imports.
Even the Europeans have being eying Turkey as an energy transit hub for routes that would bypass Russia altogether. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is one such route that is still stuck in the initial stages. Thus, Russians seem to have all the more reason to pressurise the Turks not to get into this pipeline deal, as it would cost Russia its energy trade with Europe and eventually a big client.
The second potential source of energy for the Turks is the Central Asia region. If there is something that may increase the friction between the Russians and Turks, its going to be this region. The hurdle that Turkey faces over this region is that it does not directly adjoin the region. The only help it would get to attach itself with a central Asian nation, who would be more than happy to deal with Turkey, is from Azerbaijan. However, the core of Azerbaijan does not share its borders with Turkey. Instead, it is on the other side of Armenia. Armenia has sold itself to the Russians to keep its Turkish foes at bay, thanks to their bitter past. Russia has been building up a substantial military presence in this small Caucasian state. But then things seems to be changing as Turkey and Armenia will sign landmark deals in the near future to normalise ties, in a major step towards ending nearly a century of hostility over their bloody history. This would eventually open many gates for turkey, which are currently inaccessible. It’s beyond any apprehension that these two nations who are all set to rewrite their power equations, will soon collide into each other. With their ambition overlapping, their relation may turn sour quite soon. In the short term they may continue their trade ties which may mutually benefit each other, but in the long term their interest are for sure to clash. It’s all a matter of time. In future this piece of region will be interesting to watch out for...
The Turks and the Russians certainly have some thing in common. If not any thing then at least their ambition of becoming more powerful - especially in their region. If Russia is trying to revamp its influence over erstwhile Soviet region, then Turkey is leaving no stone unturned to capture the centre-stage of geopolitical arena.
Energy is no doubt the major issue in Turkish strategic
thinking. As Turkey continues to industrialise, its thirst for energy is all set to increase. With Turkey being the largest supplier of low-cost goods to the Russian market, the influence of Turkey’s soft power can be easily felt over the Russian land. Since most of Russian corporations (heavy industry) can’t afford expensive western imports, Turkey found its foot into Russian economy by providing them economically affordable alternatives. Moreover, Turkey has a significant intervention and trade-ties in former communist states like Romania, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia. For the uninitiated, most of the Balkan states are already members of the European Union. Furthering this trade related ties, Russia is Turkey’s chief trading partner, with energy accounting for a huge pie. Talking in numbers, presently Turkey depends on Russia for 65-70 per cent of its natural gas and 40 per cent of its oil imports.Even the Europeans have being eying Turkey as an energy transit hub for routes that would bypass Russia altogether. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is one such route that is still stuck in the initial stages. Thus, Russians seem to have all the more reason to pressurise the Turks not to get into this pipeline deal, as it would cost Russia its energy trade with Europe and eventually a big client.
The second potential source of energy for the Turks is the Central Asia region. If there is something that may increase the friction between the Russians and Turks, its going to be this region. The hurdle that Turkey faces over this region is that it does not directly adjoin the region. The only help it would get to attach itself with a central Asian nation, who would be more than happy to deal with Turkey, is from Azerbaijan. However, the core of Azerbaijan does not share its borders with Turkey. Instead, it is on the other side of Armenia. Armenia has sold itself to the Russians to keep its Turkish foes at bay, thanks to their bitter past. Russia has been building up a substantial military presence in this small Caucasian state. But then things seems to be changing as Turkey and Armenia will sign landmark deals in the near future to normalise ties, in a major step towards ending nearly a century of hostility over their bloody history. This would eventually open many gates for turkey, which are currently inaccessible. It’s beyond any apprehension that these two nations who are all set to rewrite their power equations, will soon collide into each other. With their ambition overlapping, their relation may turn sour quite soon. In the short term they may continue their trade ties which may mutually benefit each other, but in the long term their interest are for sure to clash. It’s all a matter of time. In future this piece of region will be interesting to watch out for...
