Claims Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs at the Climate Institute in Washington DC.
A wide range of scientific information makes clear that significant
global warming will result from unchecked human activities, particularly the combustion of coal, petroleum, and natural gas. The carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is now over 37% above the pre-industrial value determined from air bubbles trapped in ice cores, and the methane (CH4) concentration is over 150% higher. That these higher concentrations will lead to global warming is clear from Earth’s history, from conditions on Mars and Venus, and from theoretical analyses. The changed concentrations are, however, not the only factors that affect climate. Both natural factors and other human activities (such as emission of sulfur dioxide and black carbon [soot], and changes in land cover) can also alter the climate. Actual conditions thus depend on the changing mix of these influences over time, all slowed by the time it takes for the oceans to warm, snow and ice to melt, and other factors to adjust.
While roughly similar situations in the geological past can serve as analogs, the present situation is unique in many ways. As a result, computer models of the climate’s atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice necessarily provide the best tools for understanding the potential response of the climate as forcings change. Because they are theoretical, however, testing is used to evaluate the level of confidence and caution to place in their results. The tests indicate that models do quite well in representing the range of climates around the world and its response to major volcanic eruptions. Most importantly, the models reproduce the large-scale space and time variations of the 20th century, finding that both natural and human-related factors played a role, with the human-related factors being the only way to explain global warming and climate change over the last several decades.
The really troublesome aspect of the model studies is that they tend to underestimate. Compared to model projections, Arctic sea ice is retreating faster, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass faster, sea level is rising faster, oceans are taking up CO2 less rapidly, the ranges of plants and animals are shifting faster, and more. Closer examination has been showing that there are amplifying processes that have not yet been included in the models because it had been thought they would react slowly. Claims by skeptics that models overestimate and that recent warming has slowed rely on a very selective analysis of the data; they then draw a conclusion not backed by any of the other data sets indicating rapid change is underway.
For the future, increasing reliance on coal and other fossil fuels can only make the climate situation worse—and much worse if we do not rapidly start to reduce the global emissions exerting the strong warming influence. Both developed and developing nations have to participate in this effort, but issues of equity and alleviation of poverty merit thoughtful consideration, as described in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Fortunately, the science of the situation suggests an approach of ‘Differentiated Responsibilities, but Comparable Challenges’ that can accomplish this.
A wide range of scientific information makes clear that significant
global warming will result from unchecked human activities, particularly the combustion of coal, petroleum, and natural gas. The carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is now over 37% above the pre-industrial value determined from air bubbles trapped in ice cores, and the methane (CH4) concentration is over 150% higher. That these higher concentrations will lead to global warming is clear from Earth’s history, from conditions on Mars and Venus, and from theoretical analyses. The changed concentrations are, however, not the only factors that affect climate. Both natural factors and other human activities (such as emission of sulfur dioxide and black carbon [soot], and changes in land cover) can also alter the climate. Actual conditions thus depend on the changing mix of these influences over time, all slowed by the time it takes for the oceans to warm, snow and ice to melt, and other factors to adjust.While roughly similar situations in the geological past can serve as analogs, the present situation is unique in many ways. As a result, computer models of the climate’s atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice necessarily provide the best tools for understanding the potential response of the climate as forcings change. Because they are theoretical, however, testing is used to evaluate the level of confidence and caution to place in their results. The tests indicate that models do quite well in representing the range of climates around the world and its response to major volcanic eruptions. Most importantly, the models reproduce the large-scale space and time variations of the 20th century, finding that both natural and human-related factors played a role, with the human-related factors being the only way to explain global warming and climate change over the last several decades.
The really troublesome aspect of the model studies is that they tend to underestimate. Compared to model projections, Arctic sea ice is retreating faster, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass faster, sea level is rising faster, oceans are taking up CO2 less rapidly, the ranges of plants and animals are shifting faster, and more. Closer examination has been showing that there are amplifying processes that have not yet been included in the models because it had been thought they would react slowly. Claims by skeptics that models overestimate and that recent warming has slowed rely on a very selective analysis of the data; they then draw a conclusion not backed by any of the other data sets indicating rapid change is underway.
For the future, increasing reliance on coal and other fossil fuels can only make the climate situation worse—and much worse if we do not rapidly start to reduce the global emissions exerting the strong warming influence. Both developed and developing nations have to participate in this effort, but issues of equity and alleviation of poverty merit thoughtful consideration, as described in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Fortunately, the science of the situation suggests an approach of ‘Differentiated Responsibilities, but Comparable Challenges’ that can accomplish this.
Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh has asked his young followers to marry sex workers. Addressing a huge crowd of devotees in his hometown, he said: “It’s important to understand that poor women and girls, who are trapped into a life of perpetual slavery, have no opportunity to escape this dreary existence. A benevolent society can help them out.”
influence and funding notwithstanding, has been given a new and exciting opportunity by G-20 nations of rebuilding the emerging economies which are tattering under the shackles of recession. $750 billion will be pumped into IMF’s kitty to try and do that. The new Managing Director of IMF, Dominique Strauss Kahn is trying his best to restore its old glory by shifting its ideology that can satisfy even its hardest critic. It has certainly done so with Joseph Stighitz, a Nobel Laureate who had a long time antipathy for IMF’s policies, thus declaring the new polices as ‘welcome’ in Wall Street Journal. The criticism was particularly sharp for inveterate IMF’s policies of imposing conditions against granting loans. So much so, that it often used to instruct governments to cut-back on public spending as a pre-requisite for granting loans. This kind of dealings with fragile Third World economies has often proved to be its nemesis. East Asian crisis and Argentine collapse are the examples of IMF’s flawed policies based out of the US and Western Europe’s dictates.
difficult. Just a query about this “maker of sarees from banana fiber” is enough to get us specific directions, right down to the last turn. Tucked behind a few shops lies his dilapidated rented one-room factory-house and the only way to reach it is a narrow pathway with an open sewer running along. When we entered the asbestos-roofed room, Shekhar, the unconventional saree weaver was swinging cotton threads in a hand charkha.
a commission of inquiry to study the migration and polarisation of population on religious basis hasn’t gone down well with Gujarat’s human rights activists. They believe that Modi is preparing his communal agenda for the 2012 assembly elections.
Devi has not got a farthing by way of state assistance, Malik got immediate relief and Rs 3,000 stipend for 48 months, but no promised ‘seed’ money which could help him launch into something of an alternative career. Malik is, nonetheless, better placed than some of the others but that is because of his high ranking in the Maoist hierarchy. Lesser known figures who took the government’s offer at face value, are trying hard to organise their own protection and lead a normal existence.
business. There are over 460 large business houses having significant asset value in the country. Interestingly, most of them are controlled by women- a trend which is forcing companies to engage more women into the workplace. Researches show that there are 20,000 firms which account for around five per cent of all registered businesses today in Saudi Arabia, controlled or owned by businesswomen. Interestingly, membership of women in local commerce chambers is on the rise. For example, Jeddah Chamber has 2,000 women members out of a total of 50,000. The same can be seen in Riyadh where there are 2,400 women members out of 35,000 — showing a fourfold increase in just ten years. Business-women in the Eastern Province chamber has increased to 1,000 (out of 14,000). This gradual emergence of Saudi businesswomen forced the Government to revise its years-old labour laws and business proceedings and include women too. Many chambers also came out with centres to facilitate women. Jeddah Chamber of Commerce established Khadija Bint Khwailid Centre to guide and facilitate Saudi businesswomen.
steel shell, but most bikes are much faster and more nimble, and they give you a complete feeling of freedom – bikes win hands down for fun. For safety, cars are definitely the winner, but the flirt with danger and exposure to the elements on a bike can't be beaten!
was passing through the main commercial district of Dallas, driving from the airport to the city centre. A bystander alleged that shots were fired from the casement of a construction across the road. The President buckled into Jackie Kennedy’s arms, who was heard crying out “Oh no”. The President’s limousine was immediately driven at speed to the Parklands Hospital. He died 35 minutes after being shot. Within hours of the shooting, a cop approached Lee Harvey Oswald, believing he matched the description of the killer. The cop was shot dead. Oswald was arrested straightaway, suspected of being the assassin. Shortly afterwards, he was charged. The suspect was never tried as he was shot dead two days later.