Friday, October 09, 2009

A golden miss

After sugar, now it’s time for gold to play spoilsport. With the bullion hitting its life time high at the beginning of the festival season, household buyers of the yellow metal may stay away from the glitz this year, says Deepak Ranjan Patra

“Every year I used to buy at least one gold ornament during Dussehra. But this year I don’t think I will be able to buy any. My husband is working in a private sector company. Due to slowdown he has got no increment this year, which means our budget for the upcoming festivals will remain more or less same as last year. With price of everything rising thick and fast, I don’t think with the same budget I have any chance to buy any gold jewellery.” This is what visibly upset Jyotsna Patra, a home maker from Bhubaneswar, shared with us while discussing about her plans for this year’s festival season. But then, she is not the only one.

The great Indian festival season is certainly the time for sweets, clothes, jewellery and loads of fun. But the story this year seems to be a lot different. While the sky rocketing sugar prices have already threatened to take the sweetness away from those sweets; jewellery, especially gold, now seem to be slipping out of the hands of the aam aadmi, who generally enter inside those glitzy shops only during the festival season. After all the yellow metal is already hovering around an unprecedented price level of Rs.16,000 per 10 grams. And this is certainly not a price that the common man would like to pay when she goes to buy some gold during this year’s Dhanteras (a day considered auspicious for buying gold) as a lucky charm. Moreover, gold at Rs.16,000 and that too right before the festival season is just the tip of the iceberg. If you go by what Sajjan Jindal, Chairman, Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) has to say, then buying gold this season will certainly be the biggest pain for many. As per him, “The bullion is likely to gradually see spurt in its prices and stay around Rs.18,000 per 10 grams by Diwali from current levels of around Rs.16,000 per 10 grams.”

Jindal’s words may come as a shocker to those who are not tracking the precious metal on a regular basis. For those who are in the business it’s just a little expansion of the way the bullion has behaved over the past few months on the back of heavy demand from different corners of the market to weather out the bad days. And hence, it has been an investor-led rally for the precious metal rather than a consumer-led demand, which normally used to be the case in India. Sighting the reason for the high gold price forecasted by ASSOCHAM Jindal adds up,

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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2009
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative